War on Iran: Civilian Impact, Historical Context & Regional Response (March 2026)

The latest installment of the MERIP Roundtable, focusing on the unfolding consequences of the conflict involving Iran, comes as reports emerge of significant civilian impact and escalating regional tensions. Recorded on March 18, 2026, the discussion, featuring historians and Middle East experts, centers on the human experience of the war and challenges dominant narratives that prioritize the strategic calculations of the United States and Israel. The roundtable participants—Naghmeh Sohrabi, Kaveh Ehsani, and Toby Craig Jones—examine how information is flowing within Iran amidst the siege, and how external observers can contextualize the information they receive.

Civilian Toll and Displacement

The discussion highlighted a stark disparity between the attention given to strategic considerations and the reality on the ground for Iranian civilians. Official Iranian sources report over 1,400 civilian casualties, 18,000 injuries, and damage to 61,000 civilian structures. The United Nations estimates approximately 3.2 million people have been displaced as a result of the conflict. These figures, while originating from Iranian sources, underscore the scale of the humanitarian crisis. The MERIP Roundtable sought to understand how Iranians are coping with these conditions and how the international community can better understand their experiences.

Historical Context and Long-Term Trajectories

Beyond the immediate crisis, the roundtable participants explored the historical context of the current conflict. The conversation touched upon the legacy of US sanctions on Iran, referencing Kaveh Ehsani’s 2020 Middle East Report Online article, “Voices from the Middle East: US Sanctions on Iran Devastate the Health Sector”, which details the devastating impact of sanctions on Iran’s healthcare system. The discussion also referenced Roy Mottahedeh’s book, The Mantle of the Prophet: Religion and Politics in Iran, to provide a deeper understanding of the historical and political forces shaping the current situation. The panelists aimed to situate the current war within a longer historical trajectory, moving beyond immediate triggers to examine underlying causes and potential long-term consequences.

Information Control and External Perception

A key focus of the roundtable was the challenge of accessing and verifying information from within Iran. Participants discussed the difficulties of obtaining accurate reporting amidst the ongoing conflict and the importance of critically evaluating information from all sources. The discussion also addressed the role of media narratives in shaping public perception of the war, particularly in Western countries, where the focus often remains on the strategic interests of the US and Israel. Naghmeh Sohrabi, Charles Corky Goodman Professor of Middle East History at Brandeis University, and the other panelists emphasized the need to center the experiences of those directly affected by the conflict.

Israel’s Position and US Involvement

Recent reports indicate a divergence in public statements regarding the extent of US involvement in the conflict. Netanyahu has stated that Israel “acted alone” in a gas field strike, as reported by CNN (Live updates: Iran war news), while questions remain about the degree of coordination with the United States. This follows scrutiny of former President Trump’s post regarding the gas field attacks, prompting analysis of the relationship between the US and Israel (Are US and Israel in lockstep in Iran war?). The Guardian reported that Israel denies “dragging” the US into war (Israel denies ‘dragging’ US into war). The MERIP Roundtable discussion did not directly address these specific statements, but the broader theme of external actors and their influence on the conflict was central to the conversation.

The Humanitarian Crisis and Economic Impact

The roundtable underscored the severe humanitarian consequences of the conflict, including widespread displacement and damage to civilian infrastructure. The discussion also touched upon the economic impact of the war, building on research from the Costs of War Project at Brown University (Costs of War Project) and studies on the effects of economic sanctions, such as Francisco Rodríguez, Silvio Rendón, and Mark Weisbrot’s analysis published in The Lancet Global Health (“Effects of international sanctions on age-specific mortality”). Joy Gordon’s work on economic sanctions, including her edited volume Economic Sanctions from Havana to Baghdad (Economic Sanctions from Havana to Baghdad) and her 2020 Middle East Report article (“The Enduring Lessons of the Iraq Sanctions”), provides crucial context for understanding the long-term effects of sanctions on civilian populations. The roundtable participants emphasized the need for a comprehensive assessment of the humanitarian and economic costs of the war.

International Law and Accountability

The roundtable also briefly touched upon the legal dimensions of the conflict, referencing a recent roundtable on the war on Iran and international law published by Jadaliyya (“Roundtable on the War on Iran and International Law”). Firoozeh Kashani Sabet’s essay, “Iranicide: the Genealogy of Hate” (“Iranicide: the Genealogy of Hate”) offers a critical perspective on the historical and ideological roots of the conflict. These discussions highlight the importance of accountability and the need to address potential violations of international law.

MERIP, a non-profit organization dedicated to providing critical coverage of the Middle East, is soliciting donations to support its ongoing work (DONATE NOW). The organization’s commitment to independent journalism and in-depth analysis is crucial for understanding the complexities of the conflict and its impact on the region.

Looking ahead, the immediate priority remains addressing the humanitarian crisis and ensuring the protection of civilians. The long-term implications of the conflict will depend on a number of factors, including the evolving geopolitical landscape, the outcome of diplomatic efforts, and the extent to which the international community is willing to address the underlying causes of the conflict. Continued monitoring of the situation, coupled with independent reporting and analysis, will be essential for navigating the challenges ahead. The MERIP Roundtable series will continue to provide a platform for critical discussion and informed analysis of the ongoing conflict and its broader implications.