Weight Loss Jabs: Wegovy & Ozempic Could Cost Just $3 After Patent Expiry

The possibility of significantly cheaper weight-loss medications is moving closer to reality, with new analysis suggesting that semaglutide – the active ingredient in drugs like Wegovy and Ozempic – could be manufactured for as little as $3 per monthly dose. This potential breakthrough could dramatically expand access to these treatments, particularly in lower-income countries where obesity rates are rising alongside shifts towards more westernized diets and sedentary lifestyles.

More than a billion people worldwide live with obesity, a figure that continues to climb. The World Health Organization (WHO) designated semaglutide as an essential medicine in September 2025, recognizing its potential to address this growing global health challenge. However, the high cost of these medications has remained a significant barrier to widespread apply.

The Promise of Generic Competition

The new research, currently available as a pre-print study, offers a hopeful solution. Researchers estimate that mass production of injectable semaglutide could bring the monthly cost down to around $3 (approximately £2.35). Pill formulations, a newer development, could be produced for about $16 a month. This analysis is based on shipment records from 2024 and 2025 and utilizes a methodology previously used to accurately predict the pricing of generic medications for conditions like HIV, hepatitis C and certain cancers.

A key factor driving this potential price reduction is the impending expiration of core patents on semaglutide. Patents are set to expire this year in ten countries, including Brazil, China, India, South Africa, Turkey, Mexico, and Canada, starting March 21st. This will open the door for generic manufacturers to enter the market, increasing competition and driving down prices. The researchers identified an additional 150 countries where patents have not even been filed, including the majority of Africa. These countries represent 69% of the global population with type 2 diabetes and 84% of those living with obesity.

Beyond Price: Addressing Systemic Factors

While lower prices are a crucial step, researchers emphasize that they are not a complete solution. The study authors caution that cheaper treatments alone won’t address the underlying structural drivers of obesity, such as food insecurity, poverty, increasing urbanization, and the pervasive influence of commercial food environments. Coordinated policies and careful procurement planning will be essential to maximize the benefits of increased affordability.

Dr. Andrew Hill of Liverpool University’s pharmacology department, one of the study’s authors, stated that these lower prices “open the door to worldwide access to an essential medicine.” Professor François Venter from Witwatersrand University in Johannesburg echoed this sentiment, drawing parallels to successful strategies used to make treatments for HIV, tuberculosis, malaria, and hepatitis C accessible in low- and middle-income countries. “Drugs to treat HIV, TB, malaria and hepatitis are available in low- and middle-income countries for prices close to the cost of production, saving millions of lives while allowing generic companies to make sufficient profit to ensure sustainable supply. We can repeat this medical success story for semaglutide,” he said.

Integrating Semaglutide into Broader Healthcare Systems

The potential impact of more affordable semaglutide is particularly significant for countries like South Africa and other low- and middle-income nations where cost has been a major obstacle to access. Dr. Nomathemba Chandiwana, chief scientific officer at South Africa’s Desmond Tutu Health Foundation, who was not involved in the study, highlighted that analysis suggests approximately 27% of adults globally could benefit from drugs like semaglutide, with the majority of those individuals residing in LMICs where access is currently limited.

However, Dr. Chandiwana similarly stressed the importance of integrating these medications responsibly into comprehensive obesity and diabetes care programs. This includes considering how health systems will manage the increased demand and ensure equitable distribution.

The Wider Health Context

Obesity is a serious health concern, linked to a range of other conditions including heart disease, diabetes, stroke, and cancer. The WHO estimates that 3.7 million deaths each year are attributable to excess weight. The global rise in diabetes is also alarming, increasing from 200 million cases in 1990 to 830 million in 2022, with the most dramatic increases occurring in low- and middle-income countries.

Currently, semaglutide costs around $200 a month in the United States and £120 a month in the United Kingdom. Patents in Britain, continental Europe, and the US will not expire for another five years, meaning these regions will likely not witness the same immediate price reductions as those countries where patents are expiring this year.

Looking Ahead: Procurement and Policy Considerations

This research builds on previous work by organizations like Médecins Sans Frontières, which in 2024 found that diabetes drugs, including semaglutide, could be produced and sold at significantly lower prices. The findings underscore the potential for leveraging generic competition to improve global health equity.

The next steps involve careful consideration of procurement strategies and policy adjustments to ensure that these lower-cost medications reach those who need them most. Health systems will need to develop clear guidelines for appropriate use, monitor outcomes, and address the broader societal factors that contribute to obesity. Further research will also be needed to assess the long-term effectiveness and safety of semaglutide in diverse populations.