2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bracket Breakdown & Upset Picks

2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bracket Breakdown & Upset Picks

March 16, 2026 Carlos Moreno - Sports Editor Sports

Filling out a March Madness bracket is a ritual for millions, a blend of statistical analysis and hopeful guesswork. With the 2026 NCAA Tournament field now set, the annual quest to predict the unpredictable is underway. Even as perfect brackets remain the stuff of legend, a data-driven approach can certainly improve one’s odds. Here’s a look at projected outcomes through the First Four, Round of 64, and Round of 32, acknowledging the inherent chaos of March Madness.

First Four (Dayton)

The First Four offers immediate intrigue. In the matchup of 16-seeds, UMBC is projected to advance over Howard. On the other side, Lehigh is favored against Prairie View A&M. The 11-seed contests witness Texas overcoming NC State, and SMU edging out Miami (OH).

Round of 64

East (Washington DC)

Duke, as a number one seed, should have little trouble with Siena. Ohio State is favored against TCU, while St. John’s is projected to overcome Northern Iowa. A potential upset could brew with 4-seed Kansas facing WAC champion Cal Baptist, but Kansas’s experience is expected to prevail. Louisville is expected to defeat South Florida, though South Florida’s pace and three-point shooting present a challenge, particularly if Louisville’s Mikel Brown isn’t fully recovered. Michigan State should handle North Dakota State, and UCLA is favored against UCF, though the Bruins’ travel to the East Coast is a factor to watch. Finally, UConn is projected to advance past Furman.

South (Houston)

Florida is expected to dispatch Lehigh. Iowa is a slight upset pick over Clemson, benefiting from NCAA Tournament experience gained last season. Vanderbilt is favored against McNeese, while Nebraska should overcome Troy. North Carolina is projected to defeat VCU, and Illinois is expected to handle Penn. A fascinating matchup sees Texas A&M potentially upsetting St. Mary’s, given St. Mary’s unique style of play. Finally, Houston is heavily favored against Idaho.

West (San Jose)

Arizona is expected to easily defeat Long Island University. Utah State is a potential upset pick over Villanova. Wisconsin should advance past High Point, while Arkansas is favored against Hawaii. BYU faces a tough test against Texas, but is projected to win. Gonzaga is expected to overcome Kennesaw State, and Miami is favored against Missouri. Purdue, as a two seed, is projected to advance past Queens.

Midwest (Chicago)

Michigan is expected to defeat UMBC. Georgia is favored against St. Louis. Akron is a lively underdog, poised to upset Texas Tech, who are dealing with injuries. Alabama is projected to overcome Hofstra. SMU could outplay their seed if BJ Edwards returns to form, and is favored against Tennessee. Virginia is expected to defeat Wright State, and Kentucky is projected to handle Santa Clara, though Santa Clara’s recent success in the WCC makes them a team to watch. Finally, Iowa State is favored against Tennessee State.

Round of 32

East (Washington DC)

Duke is projected to advance past Ohio State. St. John’s is a close matchup against Kansas, but the Red Storm’s size could prove decisive. Michigan State is favored against South Florida, while UConn is expected to defeat UCLA.

South (Houston)

Florida is projected to advance past Iowa. Vanderbilt is favored against Nebraska, benefiting from their recent postseason form. Illinois is expected to overcome North Carolina, and Houston is projected to advance past Texas A&M.

West (San Jose)

Arizona is expected to defeat Utah State. Arkansas is favored against Wisconsin. Gonzaga is projected to advance past BYU, and Purdue is expected to defeat Miami.

Midwest (Chicago)

Michigan is projected to advance past Georgia. Akron is a potential upset pick, poised to defeat Alabama. Virginia is favored against SMU, and Iowa State is expected to overcome Kentucky.

While predicting March Madness is a fool’s errand, these projections, based on season-long performance and matchup analysis, offer a plausible path through the early rounds. But, the beauty of the tournament lies in its unpredictability, and a few unexpected upsets are all but guaranteed. Akron, in particular, presents a compelling underdog story, with a legitimate chance to make a deep run.