Aaron Judge, Yankees Open Season on Netflix: Can He Hit 50+ Home Runs?

The 2026 Major League Baseball season begins Wednesday night with a decidedly unconventional pairing: the New York Yankees visiting the San Francisco Giants in a game exclusively streamed on Netflix. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05 PM ET.

The matchup features a compelling pitching duel between Yankees left-hander Max Fried and Giants righty Logan Webb. It’s the first live MLB game to be broadcast on the streaming service, marking a significant shift in how baseball reaches its audience. The Giants are ushering in a new era under first-year manager Tony Vitello, who arrives with no prior professional coaching or playing experience – a first in major league history.

For Aaron Judge, the Yankees’ star slugger, the opening night contest carries a personal resonance. A Northern California native, Judge grew up a Giants fan and contemplated signing with San Francisco after the 2022 season before ultimately returning to the Bronx. He has a strong track record on Opening Day, having recorded a hit in all nine of his career appearances, including a home run against Webb at Yankee Stadium in 2023.

Judge’s power is a key storyline heading into the season. He joined Babe Ruth, Mark McGwire, and Sammy Sosa as one of only four players to hit 50 or more home runs in a season four times, finishing with 54 last year. However, he wasn’t the league leader in that category. Seattle’s Cal Raleigh topped the majors with 58, while Philadelphia’s Kyle Schwarber led the National League with 56 and Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Dodgers hit 53. The 2025 season marked only the third time in MLB history that four players reached the 50-homer plateau, joining 1998 and 2001.

Oddsmakers currently favor Judge to lead the majors in home runs again this year. FanDuel lists his over/under at 48.5, while DraftKings offers a -110 wager on him reaching 50. He’s also the +350 favorite to lead the majors in home runs and a +215 favorite to win another AL MVP award.

Webb, making his fifth consecutive Opening Day start for the Giants, is 0-1 with a 3.91 ERA in those games. He’s a perennial NL Cy Young candidate, finishing fourth in voting last season after going 15-11 with a 3.22 ERA and a league-leading 224 strikeouts. Despite his consistent performance, Webb has yet to secure a win on Opening Day.

The right-hander has faced the Yankees three times in his career, posting a 1-2 record with a 5.50 ERA over 18 innings. Judge has had some success against Webb, going 3-for-7 with a home run and three RBIs in nine plate appearances, including a prior meeting in the World Baseball Classic where they were teammates on Team USA.

Vitello, the Giants’ rookie manager, led San Francisco to a 19-9 record during Cactus League play, second only to the Los Angeles Dodgers. He is currently a +1400 longshot to win NL Manager of the Year.

The Giants have added former Yankee Harrison Bader to their roster, though he’s been dealing with a hamstring issue. Bader slashed .316/.409/.579 in nine spring games before the injury.

Fried, making his first Opening Day start for the Yankees, previously made three such starts with Atlanta, going 0-1 with a 5.14 ERA. He signed an eight-year, $218 million contract with New York before the 2025 season and delivered a strong performance, going 19-5 with a 2.86 ERA and earning an All-Star selection.

Historically, Giants hitters have struggled against left-handed pitching, posting a .214 average and .631 OPS against them in 2025. The addition of Luis Arraez, a multiple-time batting champion, is expected to bolster their offense, though his performance against lefties is more moderate.

Tonight’s game will also be the first regular-season MLB contest to utilize the Automated Ball-Strike (ABS) Challenge System. While there were some issues during spring training, the system is expected to function smoothly.

The Yankees, despite losing out on several high-profile free agents, re-signed key players like Cody Bellinger, Paul Goldschmidt, and Trent Grisham. Manager Aaron Boone faces pressure to deliver a World Series championship, and is a +500 second-favorite to be the first manager fired this season.