Champions League 2025/26: Arsenal Now Favorites to Win, Opta Predicts
Jakarta – The 2025/2026 Champions League competition is reaching a crucial phase. Eight teams remain after the round of 16, setting the stage for a fiercely competitive next round.
Opta’s supercomputer has released its latest predictions after running 10,000 simulations. The results indicate Arsenal as the favorites to win the tournament, followed by other European giants.
English Clubs Suffer Setbacks
The round of 16 significantly altered the landscape of the competition. A particularly striking result came from Paris Saint-Germain’s dominant performance against Chelsea, winning the tie with an aggregate score of 8-2.
Of the English clubs, only Arsenal and Liverpool have advanced. Manchester City, Newcastle United, and Tottenham Hotspur were all eliminated earlier than expected.
Real Madrid once again demonstrated their European pedigree, defeating Manchester City in their round of 16 matchup.
An intriguing story comes from Sporting CP. The Portuguese club initially had only a 0.45% chance of winning the Champions League, but that probability has increased dramatically following an impressive comeback in the knockout stages.
Atlético Madrid continues to showcase its resilience as a tricky team to overcome, although their chances of winning the tournament remain lower than those of other elite teams.
Champions League Winner Predictions by Opta Supercomputer
Here are the predicted chances of winning the 2025/2026 Champions League based on 10,000 simulations:
| Team | Chance of Winning |
|---|---|
| Arsenal | 29.95% |
| Bayern Munich | 18.02% |
| Barcelona | 14.74% |
| Paris Saint-Germain | 12.15% |
| Real Madrid | 10.18% |
| Liverpool | 7.04% |
| Atlético Madrid | 4.65% |
| Sporting CP | 3.27% |
Champions League Schedule (Quarterfinals)
Wednesday, April 8, 2026 (Leg 1)
Thursday, April 9, 2026 (Leg 1)
Wednesday, April 15, 2026 (Leg 2)
Thursday, April 16, 2026 (Leg 2)
The shift in the Champions League landscape is notable, particularly with Arsenal emerging as the clear frontrunner according to Opta’s projections. However, the competition remains wide open, with Bayern Munich, Barcelona, and Paris Saint-Germain all posing significant threats. The early exits of several prominent English clubs underscore the unpredictable nature of the tournament and the increasing competitiveness of teams from across Europe.
Sporting CP’s remarkable rise from a minimal chance of winning to a legitimate contender is a testament to their performance in the knockout stages. Their journey will be closely watched as they navigate the quarterfinals. The supercomputer’s projections, although based on extensive simulations, are not guarantees, and the actual outcome will depend on the teams’ performances on the field.
The quarterfinal matchups promise exciting clashes, with Arsenal facing Sporting Lisbon, a tie that pits a tournament favorite against a team that has defied expectations. Bayern Munich’s strong showing in the simulations and their commanding victory over Atalanta position them as a formidable opponent. Barcelona and Paris Saint-Germain, both with significant chances of winning, will undoubtedly provide compelling contests. Real Madrid, with their rich Champions League history, remains a threat, while Liverpool and Atlético Madrid will look to overcome their lower probabilities and make a deep run in the tournament.
The coming weeks will be critical as these eight teams battle for a place in the semifinals and the chance to lift the Champions League trophy. The supercomputer’s predictions offer a data-driven perspective, but the drama and unpredictability of the Champions League are what make it one of the most captivating competitions in world football.