Champions League 2025-26: Opta Supercomputer Predicts Winner & Team Chances
The paths to European glory are now set. Following Friday’s UEFA Champions League draw, the Opta supercomputer has assessed each team’s chances of lifting the trophy in Budapest on .
The knockout stage matchups promise compelling contests. Paris Saint-Germain will face Chelsea, Galatasaray will take on Liverpool, and a familiar clash awaits as Real Madrid and Manchester City meet for the fifth consecutive season in the Champions League knockout rounds. Other ties include Atalanta versus Bayern Munich, Newcastle against Barcelona, Atlético Madrid versus Tottenham, Bodø/Glimt against Sporting CP, and Bayer Leverkusen hosting Arsenal.
Heading into the draw, Arsenal were identified by the Opta supercomputer as the favorites to win their first ever European Cup/Champions League. Their strong form in the Premier League and a first-place finish in the Champions League group stage have contributed to this assessment. A key advantage for the Gunners is securing a home leg in every round until the final, should they progress.
Arsenal’s path appears relatively favorable, facing Bayer Leverkusen in the last 16 – a team ranked 26th in the Opta Power Rankings. Further down the line, a potential quarter-final matchup against Bodø/Glimt, should the Norwegian side overcome Sporting CP, adds to their optimistic outlook. The supercomputer currently gives Arsenal a 27.4% chance of winning the competition, based on 10,000 simulations.
Bayern Munich are considered strong contenders as well. The Bundesliga champions are in excellent form and will face Atalanta in the last 16. While a potential quarter-final clash against either Real Madrid or Manchester City looms, Bayern’s chances are still rated at 14.3% by the supercomputer.
The Real Madrid versus Manchester City tie is noteworthy as the fifth consecutive season these two giants will clash in the Champions League knockout stage – a first in the competition’s history. City are favored to advance from this tie (64.3%), having already defeated Real Madrid 2-1 in the league phase. Pep Guardiola’s side are fourth favorites overall to win the tournament (10.8%), while Real Madrid’s chances are estimated at 2.8%, making them ninth favorites.
Liverpool, under Arne Slot, will face Galatasaray in the last 16. Despite a 1-0 loss to the Turkish side in the league phase, the supercomputer heavily favors Liverpool to progress (82.3%). Galatasaray advanced past Juventus in the play-off round, but their relatively low ranking (47th in the Opta Power Rankings) suggests Liverpool will be a significant hurdle. The supercomputer gives Liverpool a 12.8% chance of lifting the trophy.
Barcelona will face Newcastle United, having already defeated them 2-1 at St. James’ Park in the league phase. A potential path to the semi-finals could see them face Atlético Madrid or Tottenham, and possibly Arsenal. Hansi Flick’s Barcelona are projected to win the competition in 7.7% of simulations, while Newcastle’s chances are slightly higher at 4.7%.
Defending champions Paris Saint-Germain face a challenging route, potentially facing three Premier League sides – Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, and potentially Arsenal or Tottenham. The supercomputer is less optimistic about their chances of retaining the trophy (4.6%). Chelsea, despite a difficult draw, are given a 6.9% chance of adding the Champions League title to their trophy cabinet.
Atlético Madrid versus Tottenham is another intriguing tie. Igor Tudor is projected to win the tie in 46.3% of simulations, but is only expected to lift the trophy in 1.2% of simulations. Atlético Madrid have a slightly better chance at 2%.
Bodø/Glimt’s journey has been remarkable, defeating Manchester City and Atlético Madrid in the league phase and overcoming last season’s runners-up, Inter, in the play-offs. They face Sporting CP in the last 16, with a potential quarter-final against Arsenal or Bayer Leverkusen. The supercomputer gives them a minimal 0.4% chance of winning the competition, but their story is one to watch.
The Champions League promises a thrilling knockout stage, with Arsenal currently leading the charge according to the Opta supercomputer. Although, the competition remains wide open, and several teams have a realistic chance of lifting the trophy in Budapest.
