Milan-San Remo 2026: Pogacar vs Van der Poel – Preview & Favorites

Andiamo! The early months have already delivered key cycling appointments, but Saturday marks the arrival of the first monumental classic of 2026: Milan-San Remo. In La Primavera, Tadej Pogačar aims to fill a significant gap in his palmarès, but he must first overcome Mathieu van der Poel.

History

One attack sometimes says more than a thousand words. For older cycling fans who grew up in the time of Eddy Merckx, it may be hard to imagine that there is currently a cyclist riding who might be even better than the now eighty-year-old Belgian cycling legend. More complete, more ingenious and more flamboyant than the man who wrote countless great cycling races in his name in the sixties and seventies of the last century.

Every era has its phenomena, but Tadej Pogačar is perhaps the greatest phenomenon of them all. But even phenomena sometimes collide with unforeseen natural forces. March 22, 2025. The flanks of the Poggio. Three riders jointly tackle this 3.7 kilometer climb – the traditional decider in Milan-San Remo – for years.

The man in the white jersey with rainbow stripes is Tadej Pogačar, the tall man with a full beard is Filippo Ganna, and the slender but at the same time powerful rider in the Alpecin-Deceuninck jersey is Mathieu van der Poel. These three toppers were engaged in a ruthless three-way battle for victory in La Primavera on that Saturday in March.

The world champion realizes that he has to throw the cat among the pigeons early and attacks furiously on the flanks of the penultimate climb, the well-known Cipressa. With his accelerations, Pogačar causes the peloton to burst apart, but one rider is not willing to yield: Van der Poel. The Dutchman gives no quarter. Whatever Pogačar tries, the classics specialist always has a suitable answer, even on the Poggio.

On the pedals, in the saddle, leading, from his wheel, and after every bend: Pogačar has to use his full cycling repertoire, but it is not enough to shake off his Dutch opponent. Van der Poel seems to be counting down the last hectometers to the top of the Poggio, but then something unexpected happens. To the surprise of many, not least of Pogačar.

Three hundred meters from the top of the Poggio, just after the steepest section, Van der Poel unleashes a scorching attack from his legs. With one well-timed and rapid acceleration, Van der Poel makes the best cyclist of the moment falter for a moment. Pogačar manages to reconnect, but the damage is already done. In the subsequent sprint for the win, Van der Poel finishes it off in a grandiose manner.

Course

The time when Milan-San Remo actually started from Milan is already a few years behind us. In 2023, Abbiategrasso had the honor of being the starting point, and a year later the riders clicked their cycling shoes into the pedals in Pavia. The organization seems to have liked this, as the first monumental classic of the season has found an alternative starting point for the coming years with the Lombard city.

The 117th edition of Milan-San Remo has few surprises in store for the riders. The organization sticks to its proven recipe, although the total distance is almost 300 kilometers this time. After the start, it goes in a south-westerly direction – over mostly flat roads – to the first climb of the day. And that is immediately a well-known decider.

We are of course talking about the Passo del Turchino. The Turchino was in the early days of Milan-San Remo still the only noteworthy climb in the course, roughly halfway through the race, but this was often decisive. The Turchino is no longer more than a footnote in the race proceedings these days, but will provide some nervousness as the first benchmark in the race.

After passing over the Passo del Turchino, the riders descend towards Genoa Voltri and from there they will ride westwards along the coast. Via Varazze, Savona and Albenga, the Tre Capi are reached: the Capo Mele, the Capo Cervo and the Capo Berta. From the top of the latter climb, about forty kilometers from the finish, it goes at full speed to the last two climbs of the day: the Cipressa, which has been part of the route since 1982, and the Poggio.

The climb itself does not officially have a name, so it is named after the village that forms the top: Cipressa (5.6 km at 4.1%). The climb to this village on the Ligurian coast, at an altitude of about 240 meters, is regularly the location where underdogs try a desperate attack, but where the race is rarely (although Pogacar would like to prove otherwise) decided. This is partly due to the ten flat kilometers between the Cipressa and the Poggio, where an approaching peloton has a significant advantage.

Just as the climb, the descent can also have its effect on the race, since the descending line of the SP77 is considered extremely technical. Request Niccolò Bonifazio, who once reached dizzying speeds there to the admiration and dismay of television viewers. The Italian managed to finish that descent well, but that was not always the case. In 1984, Jan Raas had a bad fall there, with long-term back problems which would mark the end of his career as a professional cyclist.

The final two flat kilometers lead over long and straight roads. 850 meters from the finish there is a sharp bend to the left, followed by a bend to the right 750 meters from the finish on the well-known Via Roma.

Favorites

It is hardly imaginable anymore, but in a not-so-distant past, Milan-San Remo was a classic for the sprinters. At least, speedy men invariably had a good chance of winning, but that time is over. The days when Mario Cipollini (2002), Óscar Freire (2004, 2007 and 2010), Alessandro Petacchi (2005), Mark Cavendish (2009), Alexander Kristoff (2014), John Degenkolb (2015) and Arnaud Démare (2016) could triumph seem to be counted.

This has to do with the race behavior of the current toppers in the peloton. The big names of now depart no opportunity or climb unused to set the race on fire. Whether it is thirty, sixty or even a hundred kilometers from the finish. Established race scenarios are rewritten, cycling rules are disregarded. In modern cycling, the leaders throw the cat among the pigeons earlier and earlier.

More and more often and especially earlier, riders race with open visors. There are also several teams that benefit from making the race as hard as possible, in order to throw the fast men overboard, but we are especially looking at one man: Tadej Pogačar. The Slovenian cycling wonder from Komenda has won almost every conceivable race in recent years and, at 27, is already ticking off still missing races. One of these races is Milan-San Remo.

Will the world champion finally succeed in his sixth attempt? The leader of UAE Emirates has invariably been present in the final of the Italian classic, is often the man who breaks open the race, but riding away on the Cipressa or Poggio turns out to be so difficult. Even for a phenomenon like Pogačar. Pogačar is still looking for the missing numbers to crack the code, but it is not rocket science either. For Pogačar, it is important to develop the race as hard as possible, and as early as possible.

And there is an even bigger ‘problem’ for Pogačar and UAE Emirates: they will have to contend with Mathieu van der Poel again this year. The Dutchman was the big bogeyman of the Slovenian last year and the rider who kept him from winning on the Via Roma once again. The leader of Alpecin-Premier Tech seems ready to take on the world champion again this year, because Van der Poel made a good impression this spring. At his season debut in the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and Tirreno-Adriatico, there was no stopping MVDP.

We therefore nominate him as the top favorite, given his two previous victories, intrinsic class, explosiveness and ability to finish in the sprint. He must first follow Pogačar on the Cipressa and Poggio, but he showed last year that it is possible. Alpecin-Premier Tech, the team of title defender Van der Poel, also has another intriguing card to play. If the race unfolds in a way that allows for a sprint from a slightly larger group, Jasper Philipsen (winner of the recent Nokere Koerse) could be a contender.

Last year, the race ended in a three-way battle between Pogačar, Van der Poel and Filippo Ganna. The Italian died a thousand deaths on the Cipressa and Poggio, but was the only one able to join the two cycling phenomena. In the final sprint, Ganna ended up in that frustrating second place, and will therefore undoubtedly start with a feeling of revenge on Saturday. Will the rider from INEOS Grenadiers provide the first Italian victory since Vincenzo Nibali, who achieved a memorable solo victory in 2018?

Speaking of former winners, we are very curious if Wout van Aert (winner of the ‘covid edition’ of 2020) can compete with Pogačar and Van der Poel on the Cipressa and Poggio. The 31-year-old Belgian is back after two seasons of choosing an alternative preparation without Milan-San Remo. This year he is again opting for a classic spring program, with all the major cycling appointments, and La Primavera is his first main goal of 2026. With a good Van Aert, you always have to count on him, but how good is he now?