Milan-Sanremo 2026: Predictions for Pogacar, Van der Poel & Women’s Race
The anticipation is building for Milan-San Remo and the cycling world is once again focused on the potential duel between Tadej Pogačar and Mathieu van der Poel. While Pogačar remains a formidable threat, a consensus is emerging among analysts that Van der Poel is poised to secure another victory on the Via Roma.
The debate isn’t whether these two will be at the forefront, but rather how UAE Team Emirates will approach the race to challenge Van der Poel. Felix Mattis predicts that UAE will launch a full-gas attack before the Cipressa, attempting to shed Van der Poel on the first of the two key climbs in the finale. Though, Mattis believes this strategy will ultimately fall short, with Van der Poel proving resilient both on the Cipressa and the Poggio. He foresees a more congested finish than last year, with Tobias Lund Andresen ultimately taking the sprint victory.
Kevin Kempf echoes the sentiment that UAE will attempt to disrupt Van der Poel early, recognizing the Dutchman’s strength. He highlights the potential for a duo attack from Isaac Del Toro and Pogačar on the Cipressa, but still anticipates Van der Poel will be able to respond. Kempf ultimately sides with Van der Poel to repeat as champion, citing his current form and ability to withstand the pressure.
Matthias Seng offers a straightforward prediction: Van der Poel will claim his third Milan-San Remo title. He believes the Dutchman will confidently counter Pogačar’s attack on the Cipressa, control the race on the Poggio, and then triumph in a sprint finish. Christoph Matt similarly believes Van der Poel is stronger than ever and capable of thwarting all of UAE’s efforts.
However, not everyone is convinced it will be a repeat victory for Van der Poel. Sebastian Lindner boldly predicts a triumph for Tadej Pogačar, arguing that the Slovenian is in equally impressive form and consistently delivers on his ambitions. Lindner suggests Pogačar will set a blistering pace on the Cipressa, pushing Van der Poel to his limit and ultimately securing a solo victory. He believes UAE’s strategy will focus on maximizing speed on the climbs leading into the Cipressa, creating a decisive advantage.
Jan Zesewitz anticipates a similar tactical approach from UAE, aiming to eliminate the possibility of a sprint finish. He believes Van der Poel will remain closely marked until the final kilometers, ultimately winning the race once again. Jens Claussen adds an element of unpredictability, suggesting a wildcard contender could emerge. He proposes that Tom Pidcock, with his exceptional descending skills, could capitalize on the challenging descent from the Poggio to snatch the victory, exploiting a moment of hesitation from the favorites.
The women’s race is also generating considerable discussion. Lorena Wiebes is widely considered the favorite, with analysts highlighting the crucial role of Lotte Kopecky in supporting her. Kevin Kempf and Matthias Seng both predict Wiebes will secure back-to-back victories, with Kopecky providing tactical support and launching the sprint. Christoph Matt, however, offers a contrasting view, suggesting Marianne Vos could leverage her experience and tactical acumen to launch a successful attack on the descent from the Poggio.
Sebastian Lindner predicts a victory for Kasia Niewiadoma, believing she will launch a decisive attack on the Poggio, finally breaking her streak of near misses. Jan Zesewitz anticipates Wiebes will be challenged but ultimately overcome, with Elisa Longo Borghini capitalizing on a late attack to claim the win. Felix Mattis, however, sees a repeat of 2025, with Wiebes triumphing in a sprint from a small group after the kletter-asse fail to find agreement on the Cipressa and Poggio.
The consensus among the analysts points to a thrilling race, with Van der Poel and Pogačar expected to dominate the men’s competition and Wiebes as the frontrunner in the women’s event. However, the potential for tactical surprises and the emergence of dark horse contenders, like Pidcock and Niewiadoma, add an element of uncertainty to the outcome. The 117th edition of Milan-San Remo promises to be a spectacle of speed, strategy, and endurance, captivating cycling fans worldwide.