NASA’s Artemis II: Returning Humans to Lunar Orbit & the Future of Space Exploration

As soon as April 2026, NASA is targeting the launch of Artemis II, a mission that will send a crew of four astronauts on a 10-day journey around the Moon. This marks the first crewed lunar mission in over 50 years, building on the success of the uncrewed Artemis I flight in 2022. The mission will utilize the Space Launch System (SLS) rocket and the Orion spacecraft to carry the crew into orbit and then on a trajectory that loops around the Moon before returning to Earth. While the mission doesn’t involve a landing, it’s a crucial step toward establishing a sustained human presence on the Moon and, eventually, Mars.

The path to Artemis II, however, has been decades in the making, shaped by past successes, failures, and shifting priorities in U.S. Space policy. In a recent episode of The Conversation Weekly podcast, Scott Pace, director of the Space Policy Institute at George Washington University, detailed the long and often circuitous route that led to this moment. Pace, who previously served as the executive secretary of the National Space Council during the Trump administration, offered insights into the challenges and compromises that have defined U.S. Human spaceflight programs.

The Legacy of the Space Shuttle and the Search for a Successor

Pace explained that the groundwork for Artemis II can be traced back to the 1980s and 1990s, following the Challenger disaster. The accident prompted a reevaluation of the space shuttle program and a search for a more sustainable and safer means of accessing space. “The space shuttle program was not an economic success,” Pace noted. “The recurring cost per flight was very expensive.” This realization spurred exploration of alternative vehicle designs, including single-stage-to-orbit space planes, which were considered higher-risk options.

The 2003 Columbia disaster further complicated matters. NASA faced a difficult choice: pause human spaceflight for a decade to develop novel technology, or attempt to transition the existing infrastructure from the space shuttle program to a new system. The latter path ultimately prevailed, leading to the development of crew capsules with escape systems – a key safety improvement. The need for a heavy-lift vehicle capable of launching larger payloads and crews to destinations like Mars also became apparent, ultimately resulting in the Space Launch System (SLS) and the Orion capsule.

Key Milestones and What to Watch for During Artemis II

The Artemis II mission isn’t simply about reaching lunar vicinity; it’s a comprehensive test of the SLS rocket, the Orion spacecraft, and the life support systems necessary for deep space travel. Several critical phases will be closely monitored during the 10-day flight. According to NASA, the mission will carry astronauts Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, Christina Koch, and Jeremy Hansen. Glover will develop into the first person of color, Koch the first woman, and Hansen the first non-US citizen to exit Earth orbit and travel to the Moon’s vicinity.

Pace highlighted the importance of the solid rocket booster performance during launch, noting their reliability but also the potential for rapid failure. Another crucial checkpoint will occur in Earth orbit, where a decision will be made regarding the translunar injection – the engine burn that propels the spacecraft toward the Moon. Prior to this burn, the crew’s life support systems will undergo a thorough check to ensure a safe and habitable environment. “Once you build the commitment to head for the Moon, that life support system is going to be essential,” Pace emphasized. “And they haven’t yet done a full flight test on Orion of the environmental control and life support system.”

The return to Earth will also be a critical phase, with particular attention paid to the performance of Orion’s heat shield during atmospheric reentry. The mission profile, Pace pointed out, is more akin to Apollo 13 – utilizing the Moon’s gravity to slingshot the spacecraft back to Earth – than Apollo 8, which required more extensive engine burns to achieve a stable lunar orbit. This trajectory, he explained, is inherently less risky.

The Cost and Complexity of the SLS

While Artemis II represents a significant achievement, the program isn’t without its challenges. One of the most persistent criticisms of the SLS rocket is its high cost. Each launch is estimated to cost several billion dollars, raising questions about the long-term sustainability of the program. The relatively low flight rate – the frequency with which SLS rockets can be launched – poses a constraint on the pace of lunar exploration.

The development of the Orion spacecraft has also faced hurdles, including issues with its heat shield, as noted in a NASA report. While these issues appear to have been addressed, the heat shield’s performance during Artemis II will be closely scrutinized.

Beyond Competition: A New Era of Space Exploration

The renewed interest in lunar exploration is occurring against the backdrop of a growing space presence from other nations, particularly China. Some argue that the U.S. Must “beat China to the Moon,” but Pace offered a more nuanced perspective. He believes that the more significant concern is whether China will establish itself as the dominant force in space, setting the standards and norms for future activities. “It matters to me if China is the only one showing up and they drive all the standards and the operating norms on the Moon,” Pace stated.

However, he also emphasized that the current situation is more akin to a long-term competition than a traditional “space race.” Space is becoming increasingly globalized, with more countries and private entities participating in space activities. The Artemis program, is designed as an international and commercial partnership, aiming to collaboratively shape the future of space exploration.

The Long-Term Vision: Sustained Lunar Presence and Beyond

the goal of Artemis is to establish a sustained human presence on the Moon, paving the way for future missions to Mars. But whether This represents feasible depends on two key factors, according to Pace: the ability to utilize local resources (often referred to as “living off the land”) and the economic viability of lunar activities.

If it proves possible to extract and utilize resources like water ice for propellant or helium-3 for energy, and if commercially viable activities like lunar mining can be developed, then a permanent lunar settlement could become a reality. However, if these conditions aren’t met, human presence on the Moon may remain limited to scientific outposts, similar to those found in Antarctica.

The Artemis program represents a bold step forward in space exploration, but its success will depend on overcoming significant technical, economic, and political challenges. The data gathered during Artemis II will be crucial in informing future decisions and shaping the long-term vision for humanity’s return to the Moon and beyond. The next steps involve continued testing and refinement of the SLS and Orion systems, as well as the development of the infrastructure needed to support a sustained lunar presence.