Iran Attacks: Gulf States Face Existential Threat as War Escalates

Iran Attacks: Gulf States Face Existential Threat as War Escalates

March 20, 2026 Ananya Mittal - World Editor World

The boom reverberated so loudly over Dubai marina that the windows of the surrounding skyscrapers and exclusive hotels gave a loud, disconcerting rattle. “That sounded close, do you think a missile has hit something?” a young man asked his friend as they sipped coffees, barely looking up from the now-routine shrill alarm on their mobile phones warning of missile and drone strikes. For twenty days, since the United States and Israel began their bombing of Iran, Gulf states have faced a relentless barrage of Iranian drones and missiles targeting airports, hotels, ports, military bases, financial districts, datacentres and residential areas. While approximately 90% of these projectiles have been intercepted, the sustained attacks represent an unprecedented challenge to the region’s security and economic stability, shattering the illusion of safety and glamour that once defined Dubai.

The escalating conflict has forced Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations to confront a difficult question: how to respond to a crisis that threatens their sovereignty and economies without being drawn into a wider war. The initial response has been largely defensive, with billions spent on interceptors. However, recent attacks targeting critical infrastructure – including oil refineries in Saudi Arabia and gas facilities in Qatar and the UAE – are ratcheting up pressure for a more assertive response. The situation is further complicated by the perceived unreliability of the United States, and the growing fear that the region is entering a new, more dangerous phase.

The Shifting Sands of Regional Security

Iran’s recent attacks have extended beyond military targets, directly impacting the economic lifelines of Gulf states. Kuwait’s state oil firm, KPC, reported multiple drone attacks on its Mina al-Ahmadi refinery on Friday, while Saudi Arabia confirmed strikes on two of its oil refineries. These attacks, coupled with Iran’s continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz – a critical waterway for global oil and gas exports – are designed to inflict economic pain and demonstrate Iran’s willingness to escalate the conflict. As reported by The Guardian, Iran has vowed to show “zero restraint” in hitting back at energy infrastructure in the Gulf, its closest and easiest target.

The GCC’s reluctance to directly intervene stems from a desire to avoid becoming entangled in a conflict that is not of their making. However, this position is becoming increasingly untenable as the attacks become more frequent and damaging. “The GCC perspective is that this war has exposed a deeply troubling reality: all three parties involved are becoming increasingly irrational and detached from reality,” says Ali Bakir, assistant professor of international affairs, security, and defence at Qatar University. “Each is pursuing agendas that threaten to drag the region and the world into a very dark place.”

A History of Tensions: The US-Iran Dynamic

The current crisis is rooted in decades of strained relations between the United States and Iran, punctuated by periods of open conflict and covert operations. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran nuclear deal, offered a brief respite, but the withdrawal of the United States under the Trump administration in 2018 led to a resurgence of tensions. The reimposition of sanctions crippled the Iranian economy and prompted Iran to gradually roll back its commitments under the JCPOA. As Times Now reported on March 8, 2026, the UAE’s Ministry of Defence confirmed its air defence systems are actively responding to missile and drone threats from Iran amidst rising tensions in the Gulf region.

The recent escalation began with the US and Israeli bombing campaign targeting Iranian nuclear facilities and military personnel. This prompted Iran to launch retaliatory strikes, initially targeting Israel directly, but quickly expanding to include GCC states. The attacks on Gulf infrastructure represent a significant shift in Iran’s strategy, demonstrating its willingness to target the economic interests of countries that have historically maintained close ties with the United States.

The GCC’s Dilemma: Balancing Security and Sovereignty

The GCC countries, while well-equipped with advanced weaponry purchased largely from the United States, possess limited experience in large-scale air warfare. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are the most militarily capable, but even their resources are finite. The cost of intercepting thousands of missiles and drones is unsustainable in the long term, and the depletion of interceptor stocks raises the prospect of a successful strike on a critical target.

Adding to the complexity is the deep-seated mistrust of the United States among Gulf leaders. The perceived lack of US commitment to regional security, coupled with concerns that Washington is prioritizing its relationship with Israel, has led some GCC states to question the reliability of their traditional ally. One Gulf leader reportedly described Donald Trump as Benjamin Netanyahu’s “poodle,” highlighting the growing sense of disillusionment with US foreign policy. The Guardian reported on March 19, 2026, that Oman’s foreign minister stated the US had “lost control of its foreign policy”.

What Happens Next: A Precarious Path Forward

The immediate future remains highly uncertain. While a full-scale regional war remains unlikely, the risk of miscalculation and escalation is significant. Several potential scenarios could unfold in the coming weeks and months:

  • Continued Retaliatory Strikes: Iran may continue to target Gulf infrastructure in response to further attacks on its territory.
  • GCC Military Intervention: Pressure may mount on GCC states to grab a more assertive military stance, potentially leading to strikes against Iranian targets.
  • Diplomatic Efforts: Efforts to de-escalate the conflict through diplomatic channels could intensify, potentially involving mediation by regional or international actors.
  • US-Iran Negotiations: A renewed attempt to revive the JCPOA could be initiated, although the prospects for success appear slim.

However, as Fawaz Gerges, a professor of international relations at the London School of Economics, emphasizes, the Gulf states find themselves “in an impossible situation, between a rock and a very hard place.” They must balance the need to defend their sovereignty with the desire to avoid a catastrophic war that could destabilize the entire region. The GCC countries understand that Iran’s regime is now “extremely dangerous, even unhinged,” and that a decisive response may be necessary to deter further aggression. But the risks are immense, and the path forward is fraught with peril.

The current crisis underscores the fragility of regional security and the urgent need for a comprehensive diplomatic solution. Without a concerted effort to address the underlying causes of conflict and rebuild trust between the key actors, the Middle East risks descending into a prolonged period of instability and violence. The question now is whether cooler heads will prevail, or whether the region will succumb to the forces of escalation and retribution.

The situation is further complicated by the evacuation orders issued by Iran, as reported by MSN, urging residents in parts of Dubai and Doha to evacuate, citing the potential for a US strike. This adds another layer of uncertainty and fear to an already volatile situation.