Iran-Iraq Conflict: Militia Attacks Escalate as US & Israel Respond

The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran is rapidly drawing in regional actors, with Iran-backed militias intensifying attacks against Israel, the United States, and their allies across the Middle East. These attacks, launched from Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and even Yemen, represent a significant broadening of the conflict beyond direct Israeli-Iranian confrontation, raising concerns about a wider regional war. The situation is particularly volatile in Iraq, where these militias operate with relative freedom and where the government is attempting to navigate a delicate path between its alliance with the West and its close ties with Tehran.

Iraq: A Key Front in the Expanding Conflict

Since the beginning of the US-Israeli offensive against Iran on Saturday, dozens of attacks have been launched by militias in Iraq targeting both Israel and US bases in Jordan and within Iraq itself. These groups, largely comprised of Iraq’s majority Shia community, operate under the direction of senior officers from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), according to analysts and former regional intelligence officials. Recent attacks have also targeted infrastructure belonging to Iranian-Kurdish opposition groups in the autonomous Kurdish region of northern Iraq, a move that appears aimed at preventing these groups from potentially aiding any offensive against Iran. Airstrikes have hit the Iran-Iraq border as the US and Israel consider mobilizing Kurdish forces.

Israel and the US are responding with airstrikes and special forces operations intended to degrade the capabilities of these pro-Iranian militias. However, Iraq’s current leadership is attempting to avoid being fully drawn into the conflict, a difficult position given the militias’ deep roots within the country’s political and security structures. The Iraqi state-run news agency recently reported the thwarting of a missile launch from Basra province, intended for a neighboring country, and the seizure of a mobile launch platform.

Proxy Warfare and Regional Threats

The intensification of militia activity extends beyond Iraq. Drones and missiles have been launched from sites in Iran’s western desert towards targets in Jordan, while militia in southern Iraq have fired missiles into Kuwait. On Thursday, these militias issued a joint statement warning European countries against joining the war, threatening their “forces and bases in Iraq and the region.” This escalation underscores the potential for the conflict to spill over into multiple countries, destabilizing the entire region.

Adding to the complexity, reports have emerged of attacks on militia bases south of Baghdad and near Nasariya and Basra, carried out by minor “suicide drones.” These attacks are reported to have killed at least 15 fighters, many of them from Kataib Hezbollah, a particularly powerful pro-Iran group based in Iraq. Michael Knights, an Iraq expert at Horizon Engage, suggests this indicates a clandestine counteroffensive is underway, mirroring similar activity observed during the previous conflict between Iran and Israel in 2025. He notes the use of short-range drone systems that could not have been flown from Israel, implying covert action on the ground.

US Considerations and Potential for Broader Mobilization

The United States is also considering its options, including the potential mobilization of Iranian Kurdish opposition groups. Officials in Washington have discussed the possibility of supporting an invasion of Iran’s north-western region by these groups, a move that could further escalate the conflict and potentially destabilize the region. This strategy, however, is fraught with risks, as it could provoke a stronger response from Iran and further entangle the US in a complex regional conflict.

The US has already closed two embassies – in Riyadh and Kuwait – due to security concerns, and has ordered non-emergency personnel and their families to depart from several other countries in the region, including Jordan, Bahrain, Iraq, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. CNN reports that the US is warning citizens to abandon the region amid intensifying conflict.

The “Axis of Resistance” and its Weakening

Israel’s offensive in Lebanon has also intensified, following Hezbollah’s entry into the conflict. Hezbollah, a major Islamist movement in Lebanon with close ties to Iran, has launched attacks against Israel and even a drone towards a UK base in Cyprus. However, the so-called “axis of resistance” – the network of Iran-backed groups across the region – has been significantly weakened by successive Israeli offensives, particularly since the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.

While Hamas and the Houthis in Yemen, both close allies of Tehran, have so far remained on the sidelines, their potential involvement remains a concern. Renad Mansour, a senior research fellow at Chatham House, emphasizes that these groups are primarily focused on their own survival, making calculations based on their own interests rather than solely on Iran’s. Phillip Smyth, an independent analyst of Iran’s proxies, suggests that Tehran may be holding the Houthis “in reserve,” but that their leaders may also be “hedging their bets” in case of a collapse of the Iranian regime.

Covert Operations and Unexplained Incidents

Adding to the opacity of the situation, reports have surfaced of unexplained blasts that have disabled Iraqi government radar systems monitoring air traffic. While officials have not commented, some sources suggest that Israeli intelligence services or special forces, or even US forces, may be responsible. These incidents highlight the increasing use of covert operations as part of the broader conflict.

Further evidence of potential covert action comes from reports of attacks by an armed group affiliated with separatist movements among Iran’s Arab community against IRGC targets in south-western Iran. A strike on an IRGC base in Ahwaz was claimed by a newly formed group calling itself the “Ahwaz Falcons.”

Casualty Figures and Emerging Leadership Dynamics

As of March 5, 2026, Iranian state media reports that the death toll from five days of US-Israeli attacks has reached 1,045, with over 6,000 wounded. Al Jazeera reports that the situation is escalating both within Iran and across the wider region. The conflict has also triggered a succession struggle within Iran, with Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, emerging as a leading contender for the country’s top post.

Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has accused the US and Israel of strikes on 33 civilian sites, including hospitals, schools, residential areas, the Tehran Grand Bazaar, and the historic Golestan Palace complex. These accusations, if confirmed, would raise serious concerns about potential war crimes.

What to Expect in the Coming Days

The immediate future is likely to see continued proxy warfare, with Iran-backed militias continuing to launch attacks against US and Israeli interests, and Israel and the US responding with targeted strikes. The potential for miscalculation and escalation remains high, particularly given the involvement of multiple actors and the complex geopolitical dynamics of the region. The US submarine sinking of the Iranian frigate Iris Dena off the coast of Sri Lanka on Wednesday significantly expands the geographical scope of the conflict, demonstrating a willingness to directly engage Iranian naval assets. Monitoring the activities of Iran’s proxies, particularly in Iraq and Lebanon, will be crucial in assessing the trajectory of the conflict. The situation demands careful diplomacy and a concerted effort to de-escalate tensions before the conflict spirals further out of control.