Kazakhstan Wheat & Barley Outlook 2025/26: USDA Forecast & Export Shifts

Kazakhstan’s wheat production is currently forecast at 18 million tonnes for the 2025-26 marketing year, solidifying its position as a major grain producer in Central Asia. While slightly below last year’s record harvest, this projection reflects a generally robust agricultural sector and favorable growing conditions. However, a shift in farmer planting decisions, coupled with geopolitical factors impacting trade routes, are introducing new complexities to the country’s grain outlook.

The latest assessment from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) estimates the upcoming wheat harvest at roughly 500,000 tonnes lower than the 2024-25 level, and 900,000 tonnes below previous FAS forecasts. This divergence from earlier expectations, and from the more optimistic projections of Kazakhstan’s Bureau of National Statistics (which anticipates a record 19.3 million tonnes), stems from differing assessments of yields in key northern grain-producing regions. FAS analysts believe the national statistics bureau’s figures are overstated.

Shifting Cultivation Patterns and Export Dynamics

A primary driver behind the projected year-on-year decline in wheat production is a deliberate move by Kazakhstani farmers to reduce wheat acreage in favor of more profitable oilseed crops, particularly sunflowers and rapeseed. This trend highlights the economic incentives shaping agricultural decisions in the country. Despite the reduction in planted area, favorable weather conditions throughout much of the growing and harvesting seasons have partially mitigated the impact on overall yields, according to the FAS report.

Despite the anticipated dip in overall production, wheat exports are projected to increase, rising by 300,000 tonnes from previous forecasts to reach 10 million tonnes. This would be just shy of the record 10.19 million tonnes exported last year. This increase is being supported by government subsidies for transportation and a concerted effort by grain traders to diversify export markets. The Kazakh government’s commitment to supporting its agricultural sector is further evidenced by a recently announced subsidy for imported breeding cattle, following President Tokayev’s address in September 2025, as reported by the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service.

Barley production is also expected to remain strong, forecast at 3.6 million tonnes – a minor decline, but still among the highest on record. However, like wheat, some barley acreage is also being diverted to oilseed cultivation. Exports of feed flour, made from both wheat and barley, have experienced a significant surge, particularly to China, with initial shipments (September-December 2025) suggesting annual volumes could reach 3 million tonnes.

Geopolitical Headwinds and Trade Route Adjustments

Recent geopolitical developments, specifically the ongoing military conflict in Iran, have introduced significant disruptions to Kazakhstan’s grain trade. Grain shipments to Iran have been halted, forcing officials to seek alternative destinations for barley and other cereals, with China emerging as a key focus. The Kazakh Agriculture Ministry has stated its commitment to redirecting shipments to maintain trade flows in the face of reduced demand from Iran.

In 2025, Kazakhstan shipped approximately 1.75 million tonnes of barley, with over 60% destined for Iran before the recent disruptions. Prior to the conflict, Iran accounted for over 60% of Kazakhstan’s total barley exports, a substantial increase from the 547,000 tonnes shipped in 2024. This reliance on a single market underscores the vulnerability of Kazakhstan’s export strategy to regional instability.

To compensate for the loss of the Iranian market, Kazakhstan has increased barley shipments to China, reaching 339,000 tonnes in 2025 compared to 785,000 tonnes in 2024. Other key barley export destinations include Uzbekistan (201,000 tonnes), Tajikistan (87,000 tonnes), Azerbaijan (22,700 tonnes), as well as Iraq, Kyrgyzstan, Afghanistan, Russia, Turkey, the UAE, and other countries. Barley represents Kazakhstan’s primary export product to Iran, alongside smaller volumes of wheat and vegetable oils.

The Role of the FAS and U.S.-Kazakhstan Agricultural Ties

The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the USDA plays a crucial role in facilitating agricultural trade and development between the United States and Kazakhstan. As the overseas arm of the USDA, FAS promotes exports of U.S. Agricultural products and provides market intelligence, trade policy support, and trade capacity building programs. The FAS office in the U.S. Embassy in Astana offers services to both U.S. And Kazakh agribusinesses, government entities, and non-governmental organizations involved in agricultural trade. Interested parties can contact [email protected] for more information about trade promotion and capacity building programs, or to explore opportunities for exporting or importing U.S. Food and agricultural products. Further information on the FAS’s operate in Kazakhstan can be found on the U.S. Embassy & Consulate in Kazakhstan website.

Confirmed vs. Unclear Projections

Currently, the 18 million tonne wheat production forecast from the FAS is the most conservative estimate, grounded in observed yield data. The Bureau of National Statistics’ projection of 19.3 million tonnes remains unconfirmed by independent analysis. The extent to which farmers will continue to shift away from wheat cultivation towards oilseeds is also subject to market fluctuations and government policies. The long-term impact of the conflict in Iran on Kazakhstan’s trade relationships remains uncertain, dependent on the duration and intensity of the conflict, and the ability of Kazakhstan to successfully diversify its export markets.

Looking Ahead: Trade Diversification and Regional Stability

The coming months will be critical for Kazakhstan’s agricultural sector. The success of efforts to diversify export markets, particularly in securing alternative buyers for barley previously destined for Iran, will be a key indicator of the country’s resilience. Continued monitoring of weather patterns and crop yields will also be essential for refining production forecasts. The FAS will continue to provide updates and analysis on Kazakhstan’s agricultural sector, supporting informed decision-making for both U.S. And Kazakh stakeholders. The ongoing support from the USDA, through the FAS, will be instrumental in navigating these challenges and capitalizing on emerging opportunities in the Central Asian agricultural landscape.