Lithuania Courts US Support via Cuba Policy | Baltic Security Strategy

Vilnius is pursuing a distinctly calibrated foreign policy, intensifying diplomatic engagement with Cuba in a move designed to bolster its security interests by maintaining strong ties with the United States. The strategy, confirmed by Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys, reflects a growing awareness within the Baltic states of the need to demonstrate transatlantic commitment, particularly as geopolitical tensions rise in Eastern Europe and beyond.

A Calculated Approach to Transatlantic Security

Budrys’s recent attendance at the Miami Security Forum, as reported by Lithuania’s public broadcaster LRT, underscores the shift. The forum’s agenda focused on threats emanating from the Western Hemisphere – narco-terrorism, mass migration, and the influence of Russia, China, and Iran – providing a platform for Lithuania to signal its alignment with U.S. Priorities. Crucially, Budrys similarly used the opportunity to meet with Cuban activists, a move signaling support for democratic aspirations on the island. This dual approach – addressing shared security concerns while advocating for human rights – is central to Lithuania’s strategy.

The move is particularly notable given Lithuania’s unique position within the European Union. It remains the sole EU member state that has not ratified the 2016 European Union-Cuba cooperation agreement, a stance that highlights its willingness to diverge from the collective EU position in pursuit of its own strategic goals. In November 2023, Lithuania also abstained from a United Nations General Assembly resolution calling for an end to the long-standing U.S. Embargo on Cuba, further demonstrating its alignment with Washington. Baltic Times details this strategic positioning.

The Washington Calculus: Rubio and the Cuban-American Vote

The impetus behind Lithuania’s Cuba policy is rooted in the political landscape of Washington D.C. LRT’s reporting points to the significant influence of Cuban-American politicians, particularly former Secretary of State and National Security Advisor Marco Rubio, and the broader Hispanic Congressional caucus with ties to Cuba and Latin America. Understanding these domestic political dynamics within the U.S. Is seen as crucial for securing continued American engagement in Baltic security. Budrys articulated this rationale succinctly to LRT: “As allies, we must have clear interests, understand the interests of our partners, and identify where we can provide mutual support. This is how relationships work. It cannot be a one-way street where we only receive support when we need it.”

This approach isn’t entirely new for Lithuania. The country has historically maintained a more critical stance towards the Cuban government than many of its EU counterparts, viewing it through the lens of its own experiences with Soviet occupation and its current security concerns regarding Russia. This historical context informs the present strategy, suggesting a long-term commitment to leveraging the Cuba issue to strengthen ties with the U.S.

Budrys’s Background and Lithuania’s Security Concerns

Kęstutis Budrys, appointed as Lithuania’s Foreign Minister in December 2024, brings a background steeped in security expertise to the role. Prior to his appointment, he served as chief national security advisor to the President of Lithuania, and held various positions within the State Security Department, including Deputy Director. His Wikipedia profile details his career trajectory, highlighting his focus on intelligence and defense policy. This experience likely shapes his understanding of the strategic importance of maintaining strong transatlantic alliances.

Lithuania’s security concerns are primarily focused on Russia. Sharing a border with both Russia and Belarus, the country feels particularly vulnerable to Russian aggression, especially in the wake of the war in Ukraine. The presence of U.S. Troops in Lithuania, as part of NATO’s enhanced forward presence, is seen as a crucial deterrent. Maintaining U.S. Commitment to Baltic security is therefore a top priority for Vilnius, and the Cuba policy is viewed as a means to that end.

The EU-Cuba Agreement: A Point of Divergence

The 2016 EU-Cuba Political Dialogue and Cooperation Agreement aimed to normalize relations between the European Union and Cuba after decades of strained ties. The agreement covered areas such as political dialogue, cooperation on human rights, and economic and trade relations. Yet, Lithuania’s refusal to ratify the agreement demonstrates its willingness to prioritize its strategic relationship with the U.S. Over EU-level consensus on Cuba policy. The Lithuanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has consistently expressed support for the Cuban people’s aspirations for a democratic system, while maintaining a critical stance towards the Cuban government.

What’s Confirmed and What Remains Unclear

Confirmed: Lithuania has demonstrably increased its diplomatic focus on Cuba, evidenced by Foreign Minister Budrys’s visit to the Miami Security Forum and meetings with Cuban activists. Lithuania abstained from the UN vote on the US embargo and remains the only EU member not to have ratified the EU-Cuba cooperation agreement. The strategy is explicitly linked to maintaining U.S. Engagement in Baltic security.

Unclear: The precise impact of Lithuania’s Cuba policy on U.S. Decision-making regarding Baltic security remains to be seen. While the strategy is based on an understanding of the political dynamics in Washington, it is difficult to quantify the extent to which it will influence U.S. Policy. The long-term implications of Lithuania’s divergence from the EU on Cuba policy are uncertain.

Looking Ahead: Procedural Steps and Potential Developments

The immediate next steps involve continued diplomatic engagement with both Cuban opposition groups and U.S. Policymakers. Lithuania is likely to continue to use international forums to raise concerns about human rights in Cuba and to advocate for a more robust U.S. Policy towards the island. Within the EU, Lithuania will likely face continued pressure to ratify the 2016 agreement, but is unlikely to do so without a significant shift in the political landscape in Cuba or a change in U.S. Policy. The situation will be closely monitored by other Baltic states, who share similar security concerns and may consider adopting similar strategies to strengthen their ties with the U.S.