Saudi Arabia Urges US to Escalate Iran Attacks, Considers Direct Involvement in War

Saudi Arabia has directly urged the United States to escalate attacks on Iran, a confirmation from a Saudi intelligence source reveals, as Riyadh weighs its own potential direct involvement in the conflict. The push comes as a nearly month-long war between Israel and Iran, with US backing, continues to destabilize the region, raising concerns about a wider conflagration. The kingdom’s de facto leader, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, reportedly views the current US-Israeli campaign as a “historic opportunity” to reshape the Middle East, according to reporting in The New York Times.

A Call for Intensification

The Saudi source confirmed the reporting, stating that Riyadh isn’t simply seeking a continuation of the military campaign, but an intensification of it. Former US President Donald Trump appeared to corroborate this account, telling journalists on Tuesday that the Crown Prince is “a warrior” and “fighting with us.” This level of direct encouragement from Saudi Arabia underscores the kingdom’s deep-seated anxieties regarding Iran’s regional influence and its nuclear ambitions. Even as Saudi Arabia has not yet engaged in active military operations, a Saudi political analyst suggests direct intervention is likely if ongoing peace negotiations, spearheaded by Pakistan, fail to yield results.

“What matters now is Iran’s decision,” Mohammed Alhamed, a Saudi geopolitical analyst, stated. “If Iran engages seriously, there is still a path to contain escalation. If it rejects the conditions and continues its attacks, the threshold for Saudi action will be crossed.” Alhamed emphasized that Saudi Arabia’s response is being carefully calibrated, preparing for a deliberate and decisive escalation should it occur. The kingdom maintains it has not been actively seeking war, but rather attempting to avoid entanglement while keeping all options open.

Recent Escalations and Saudi Vulnerabilities

The impetus for this heightened Saudi concern stems from recent attacks on its territory. A drone strike last week targeted an oil refinery in Yanbu, on Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea coast, as part of Tehran’s response to the initial US-Israeli attack on February 28th. This attack is significant because, unlike its neighbors, Saudi Arabia possesses the ability to transport oil exports via pipeline to the Red Sea, lessening its vulnerability to Iran’s attempts to blockade oil tanker shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. But, the Yanbu attack signaled a warning from Iran that it could also threaten this crucial economic lifeline.

Further complicating the situation is the potential for involvement by Iran’s allies in Yemen, the Houthi movement, who possess a substantial missile arsenal. Hesham Alghannam, a Saudi defense expert, told Agence France-Presse that while Saudi Arabia currently maintains a cautious neutrality, a Houthi strike on Saudi assets could prompt a shift towards supporting the defensive coalition or undertaking limited retaliatory measures.

Historical Roots of the Rivalry

The animosity between Saudi Arabia and Iran is deeply rooted in a long-standing regional rivalry, fueled by differing interpretations of Islam and competing claims to leadership within the Islamic world. This rivalry dates back decades, with a particularly stark example revealed in a leaked US State Department cable from 2008, where then-King Abdullah urged the US military to “cut off the head of the snake,” a clear reference to the Iranian theocratic regime.

In recent years, Saudi Arabia had initially pursued a path of detente, culminating in a surprise agreement to restore diplomatic relations with Iran in March 2023, brokered by China. This shift followed a 2019 missile attack on a Saudi oil facility, which Riyadh blamed on Iran, and a perceived lack of sufficient response from the US at that time. However, the recent joint attack launched by Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, occurring amidst ongoing talks regarding Iran’s nuclear program, appears to have altered Saudi calculations.

A Shift in Alliances and Security Reliance

The current crisis is forcing Saudi Arabia to reassess its long-held reliance on the United States for its security. Khalid Aljabri, an exiled Saudi commentator and US-based cardiologist, noted that the kingdom had previously favored a negotiated solution to the standoff over Iran’s nuclear and missile programs. However, the decision by Trump and Netanyahu to launch the joint attack despite these ongoing negotiations has created a new dynamic. “In this scenario, when the war occurs anyway and escalation is happening anyway, a partially degraded Iran, a wounded lion, would be more unpredictable and more dangerous. The policy was don’t start the war, but if you start it, finish the job,” Aljabri explained.

Ellie Geranmayeh, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, suggests that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s investments in the Trump administration and its associated entities have not yielded the desired outcome. “He financially invested in Trump and Trump’s family and his corporation and his White House, but at the end of the day the views of the Saudis and of the whole Gulf have been sidelined by the wishes of Benjamin Netanyahu.”

Regional Reactions and Potential Outcomes

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has taken a more assertive stance, with its oil exports also facing disruption. Yousef Al Otaiba, the UAE ambassador to Washington, wrote in the Wall Street Journal, calling for a “conclusive outcome” that addresses the full range of threats posed by Iran.

Saudi Arabia’s position remains more nuanced, balancing the desire to protect its economic interests – particularly its Red Sea oil export route – with the risk of provoking a more severe Iranian response. Active military participation could invite retaliatory attacks targeting its oil pipeline, potentially in collaboration with the Houthis.

Geranmayeh believes that Saudi Arabia is now entering a period of deep reflection. “It is not about pushing the US away but about having more options.” The kingdom’s future course will likely depend on Iran’s response to ongoing diplomatic efforts and the evolving dynamics of the conflict.

What’s Confirmed and What Remains Unclear

Confirmed: Saudi Arabia has urged the US to intensify attacks on Iran. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman reportedly believes the current conflict presents an opportunity to reshape the Middle East. Iran has attacked Saudi oil infrastructure. The UAE is calling for a decisive military outcome against Iran.

Unclear: The extent of Saudi Arabia’s potential direct military involvement remains uncertain. The success of Pakistani-led peace efforts is yet to be determined. The specific conditions Iran would accept to de-escalate the conflict are not publicly known. The long-term impact of the crisis on Saudi-US relations is still unfolding.

Next Steps: A Delicate Balancing Act

The immediate future hinges on Iran’s response to the ongoing military pressure and diplomatic overtures. Should Iran continue its attacks or reject proposed conditions, the likelihood of Saudi Arabia’s direct intervention will increase significantly. Pakistan’s mediation efforts will be crucial in preventing further escalation, but their success is far from guaranteed. Simultaneously, Saudi Arabia is likely to continue recalibrating its security posture, exploring alternative partnerships and strengthening its own defense capabilities, recognizing the potential for a diminished reliance on traditional alliances. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether the region descends further into conflict or finds a path towards de-escalation.