US Student Market Share Declines: TNE & Partnerships Rise

US market share is shrinking, but the pie continues to grow 

The total number of internationally mobile students reached 7.3 million in 2025, according to UNESCO, a number only set to grow in the coming years.  

But traditional student flows are changing. While the US held 28% of the international student market share in 2001, last year that proportion had fallen to 16%, with further declines expected across the ‘big four’ study destinations. 

As the US continues to weather a period of unprecedented policy changes and visa restrictions, AIEA delegates were reminded of the enduring prestige of US academia and research and were urged to make the most of existing markets.  

“We can’t control immigration policy or broader political rhetoric, but we can control how we show up for prospective students,” said Megan Prettyman, VP partner success at UniQuest. 

“Compared to competitor markets, North American institutions often lag in inquiry management. This problem isn’t driven by market conditions – it’s purely execution,” she said. 

Prettyman highlighted comparative data showing US institutions trailing behind counterparts in Australia, New Zealand and the UK in inquiry responses and follow-ups, emphasising the impact of the inquiry experience on conversion rates.  

“If the funnel narrows naturally, conversion efficiency becomes the biggest growth lever,” attendees heard.  

Meanwhile, despite acute challenges, speakers said America’s capacity to host international students was “unmatched” by competitor destinations, with international students currently comprising 6% of the total student body, compared to 25% and higher across the other ‘big four’ destinations.  

TNE is not just a way to “ride out the storm” 

As visa restrictions, policy uncertainty and affordability constraints continue to dampen the appeal of the ‘big four’ study destinations, transnational education (TNE) was on everyone’s lips as US institutions explore ways to remain globally competitive.  

“There are a lot of conversations on international branch campuses and access difficulties in getting here to the US,” QS executive director of the Americas Ben Webb told the closing plenary, hailing “the great pivot” towards TNE and the promise of “education without passports”. 

But leaders warned delegates not to view TNE as a short-term policy solution: “You’ve got to think of it as a 20-year investment in a market rather than just going there to ride out the storm,” said Kirsten Fedderson, IDP vice president of partnerships. 

Meanwhile, Acumen’s Noth America president Roger Brindley emphasised the “many variations on the TNE continuum”, encouraging university leaders to look beyond in-country branch campuses and explore the possibility of more flexible and affordable options.  

He highlighted the success of UK universities’ TNE strategies, where the number of students on TNE programs has surpassed 650,000 and almost matched the number of international students studying in the UK.  

“It’s entirely probable there will be more students gaining an Australian degree overseas than ever travel to Australia. And the question is for us and Canada… do we want to be part of that conversation?” Brindley asked.  

You’ve got to think of TNE as a 20-year investment in a market rather than just going there to ride out the storm

Kirsten Fedderson, IDP

Graduate enrolments face unique challenges, and opportunities 

With IIE’s Fall Snapshot revealing a 12% decline in international graduate enrolments this year – as undergraduate levels grew by 2% – delegates convened to discuss the unique challenges facing PhD and master’s recruitment, and how institutions can strengthen this talent pipeline.  

“Graduate enrolment is distinctly vulnerable in several areas,” said Jessica Sandberg, IDP’s VP for external affairs USA, noting that recruitment was typically decentralised across campus, making strategies less adaptable to fast-paced policy changes. 

What’s more, “graduate students have a shorter timeline, making them particularly sensistive to political and economic circumstances as they can’t afford to wait and see if the situation improves”, Sandberg explained.  

While large variations exist across universities, almost every delegate in the room said their institution had seen a dip in graduate enrolments this year, with many raising concerns about applicants from Nigeria and Iran – destinations that have long sent high levels of PhD students to the US, who are now blocked by Trump’s travel ban.  

Attendees’ experiences rang true with IDP’s fall 2025 student survey, in which 40% of graduate students indicated their perception of the US had worsened since the previous year, and 82% said they now considered multiple study destinations.  

Notably, the survey  found 66% of graduate students would “definitely change” or “reconsider” their study destination if post-study work opportunities were eliminated – as threats to restrict or abolish OPT continue to loom large over the US sector.  

Amid the challenges, speakers said timely decision making was even more “crucial” to conversion at the graduate level and shared opportunities to foster international partnerships around specific programs, including possible 1+1 and hybrid options. 

“We used to recruit for graduate and then we didn’t… and I think it will come full circle,” said Kiki Caruson, vice president of USF World at the University of South Florida.  

Caruson outlined the specific challenges facing Florida institutions, as the state legislature considers imposing a 5% cap on out-of-state enrolments at public universities – covering both international students and domestic students from outside Florida.  

“I hope it won’t happen, but we’re trying to be agile in future proofing, so if we need to pull back on undergraduate, our in-country representatives will flip to graduate… and they can recruit for graduate just as effectively as they can recruit for undergraduate,” she said.  

Insitutions are building resilience through partnership networks 

Elsewhere in the conference, IIE presented fresh data from the first iteration of its global partnerships survey, revealing steady growth not only in the importance of such links, but the scrutiny they are being subjected to in higher education and beyond.  

With the first phase of the survey taking place across the US, UK and Europe, 84% of respondents said the international partnership landscape had changed and over half reported having more than 100 international partnerships.  

“Changing geopolitical relationships have dramatically affected international partnership strategies,” said IIE research associate Susan Buck Sutton. 

“There are more partnerships, they’re stronger than ever, they’re doing more things and they are spread more broadly… If there’s a sermon to this – and there is – it’s that the network is primed for the challenges of the present that we’re all feeling,” she added. 

The survey found international partnerships were becoming more strategic, multi-functional, and carefully planned, with institutions broadening geopolitical portfolios and enhancing relationships with the global south.  

“The idea of signing MOUs for the sake of signing MOUs has changed over the last decade,” said Sylvia Jons, director of IIE’s Centre for International Partnerships, highlighting a reduction in ceremonial agreements without activity and rising accountability for the outcomes of such initiatives.  

Drawing on themes of data and storytelling that emerged throughout the conference, speakers emphasised the importance of using the findings to “explain these partnerships beyond ourselves” – not only their economic impact but the values that can be translated for employers and governmental agencies, said Buck Sutton. 

The international education landscape is undergoing a significant shift, with the United States facing increasing competition and a shrinking, though still substantial, share of the global student market. Key discussions at the recent Association of International Education Administrators (AIEA) Conference 2026 highlighted these challenges, alongside emerging strategies for institutions to adapt and thrive. Four key takeaways from the AIEA Conference 2026 center on the evolving market share, the rise of transnational education (TNE), unique challenges in graduate enrollment, and the growing importance of strategic partnership networks.

A Shifting Global Landscape for International Students

According to UNESCO data, the total number of internationally mobile students reached 7.3 million in 2025, a figure projected to continue its upward trajectory. However, the dominance of traditional study destinations is waning. While the US held 28% of the international student market share in 2001, that proportion had fallen to 16% last year, with further declines anticipated. This contraction occurs even as the overall “pie” of international students continues to grow, indicating a redistribution of students rather than an overall decrease in demand for international education.

Delegates at the AIEA conference acknowledged the impact of recent US policy changes and visa restrictions on this trend. Despite these headwinds, the enduring prestige of US academia and research remains a significant draw. Megan Prettyman, VP Partner Success at UniQuest, emphasized the need for institutions to focus on what they *can* control: improving the student experience and conversion rates. “We can’t control immigration policy or broader political rhetoric, but we can control how we show up for prospective students,” she stated.

A critical area for improvement identified was inquiry management. US institutions, on average, lag behind their counterparts in Australia, New Zealand, and the UK in responding to and following up with prospective student inquiries. This impacts conversion rates, as a responsive and engaging inquiry experience is crucial for attracting students. As Prettyman pointed out, “If the funnel narrows naturally, conversion efficiency becomes the biggest growth lever.” Despite these challenges, the US capacity to host international students remains substantial, with international students currently comprising 6% of the total student body, compared to higher percentages in other major destinations. A recent report underscores the crucial role international students play in US growth.

Transnational Education: Beyond a “Storm-Riding” Strategy

As visa restrictions, policy uncertainty, and affordability concerns continue to impact the appeal of traditional study destinations, transnational education (TNE) has emerged as a prominent topic of discussion. TNE, encompassing initiatives like international branch campuses and collaborative degree programs, offers a way for US institutions to maintain a global presence and reach students who may be unable to travel to the US. QS executive director of the Americas, Ben Webb, hailed “the great pivot” towards TNE, describing it as “education without passports.”

However, leaders cautioned against viewing TNE solely as a short-term solution to navigate current challenges. Kirsten Fedderson, IDP Vice President of Partnerships, stressed the importance of long-term investment. “You’ve got to think of it as a 20-year investment in a market rather than just going there to ride out the storm.” This perspective highlights the need for strategic planning and a commitment to building sustainable partnerships. Roger Brindley, Acumen’s North America president, emphasized the diverse range of TNE options, encouraging institutions to explore flexible and affordable models beyond establishing full-fledged branch campuses. He pointed to the success of UK universities, where the number of students on TNE programs has surpassed 650,000, almost matching the number of international students studying in the UK. This surge in TNE numbers demonstrates the potential of this approach. Brindley posed a critical question for US and Canadian institutions: “Do we wish to be part of that conversation?”

Graduate Enrollment: A Unique Set of Hurdles

While undergraduate enrollment saw a modest 2% increase, international graduate enrollment experienced a more significant 12% decline in the fall of 2025, according to IIE’s Fall Snapshot. This disparity underscores the unique challenges facing PhD and master’s recruitment. Jessica Sandberg, IDP’s VP for External Affairs USA, noted that graduate recruitment is often decentralized, making it less adaptable to rapidly changing policies. Graduate students have shorter timelines and are more sensitive to political and economic circumstances, as they cannot afford to wait for conditions to improve.

Many institutions reported a decline in graduate enrollment, particularly from Nigeria and Iran, countries that have historically sent a large number of PhD students to the US. These students are now facing barriers due to former President Trump’s travel ban. The expansion of the travel ban significantly impacted applicants from these regions. An IDP survey revealed that 40% of graduate students now perceive the US less favorably than the previous year, and 82% are considering multiple study destinations. Crucially, 66% of graduate students indicated they would “definitely change” or “reconsider” their destination if post-study perform opportunities, such as Optional Practical Training (OPT), were eliminated, a threat that continues to loom over the US higher education sector.

Despite these challenges, speakers emphasized the importance of timely decision-making and fostering international partnerships around specific programs, including exploring 1+1 and hybrid options. Kiki Caruson, Vice President of USF World at the University of South Florida, outlined the challenges facing Florida institutions, as the state legislature considers a 5% cap on out-of-state enrollment, encompassing both international students and domestic students from outside Florida. This proposed cap could significantly impact international student recruitment in the state.

Building Resilience Through Partnership Networks

The AIEA conference also highlighted the growing importance of international partnership networks. IIE’s global partnerships survey revealed steady growth in both the number and strategic importance of these links. The survey found that 84% of respondents believe the international partnership landscape has changed, and over half reported having more than 100 international partnerships. Susan Buck Sutton, IIE research associate, noted that changing geopolitical relationships have dramatically affected partnership strategies.

Institutions are increasingly focusing on building strategic, multi-functional partnerships and broadening their geopolitical portfolios. Sylvia Jons, Director of IIE’s Centre for International Partnerships, highlighted a shift away from ceremonial agreements towards more accountable initiatives with measurable outcomes. Speakers emphasized the need to effectively communicate the value of these partnerships – not only their economic impact but also the broader benefits they offer to employers and governmental agencies. The network, as Buck Sutton put it, is “primed for the challenges of the present that we’re all feeling.”

What’s Next?

The takeaways from the AIEA Conference 2026 point to a period of adaptation and strategic realignment for US institutions. The immediate next steps involve focusing on improving student experience and conversion rates, exploring diverse TNE models, and strengthening international partnership networks. The long-term success of US higher education in attracting and retaining international students will depend on its ability to navigate evolving geopolitical landscapes, address policy challenges, and demonstrate its continued commitment to global engagement. The US withdrawal from UNESCO, finalized on December 31, 2026, as per the State Department’s announcement, adds another layer of complexity to this landscape, potentially impacting collaborative initiatives and data sharing. The coming years will be critical in determining whether US institutions can successfully adapt to these changes and maintain their position as a leading destination for international students.