NCAA Tournament Bubble: Dayton-VCU Impacts Brackets & Last Four In
PITTSBURGH, PA – The Atlantic 10 Tournament championship game on between the Dayton Flyers and the VCU Rams carries significant weight, not just for the conference’s automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament, but for the broader bubble picture as Selection Sunday looms. The matchup, set for 1 p.m. ET on CBS at PPG Paints Arena, pits a Flyers team surging with momentum against a Rams squad that has dominated the conference this season.
Dayton (24-10), the No. 4 seed, navigated a challenging path to the final, defeating St. Bonaventure in the quarterfinal and then Saint Louis in a thrilling 70-69 semifinal contest. Their recent success – winning eight of their last nine games – is built on a strong defensive foundation, allowing just 69.9 points per game. Offensively, they average 74.9 points, led by Javon Bennett’s 16.3 points per game, complemented by De’Shayne Montgomery (13.6 points, 2.3 steals) and Amael L’Etang (12.3 points, a team-high six rebounds).
VCU (26-7), the No. 2 seed, also earned their spot in the championship game with victories over Duquesne and Saint Joseph’s. The Rams have been on a remarkable run of their own, winning 15 of their last 16 games. They boast a potent offense, ranking among the top 50 nationally with 82.1 points per game, and a solid defense, conceding 72 points per game. Terrance Hill Jr. Leads VCU in scoring with 14.3 points per game and 2.9 assists, while Lazar Djokovic contributes 13.8 points and 5.5 rebounds per game.
The regular-season series favored VCU, with the Rams securing decisive wins of 99-73 and 68-62. However, those results may not fully reflect Dayton’s current form. Analysts predict a much tighter contest on Sunday, with the Flyers expected to keep the game within 3.5 points despite the earlier defeats. The stakes are high, and the potential for an upset is palpable.
What makes this championship game particularly compelling is the possibility of the Atlantic 10 sending three teams to the NCAA Tournament. Saint Louis, despite their semifinal loss, is considered safely in the field. VCU is firmly on the bubble, but a win would solidify their position. A Dayton victory, however, could open the door for all three programs to receive bids – a scenario not seen since 2018.
This potential three-bid scenario has significant implications for teams on the NCAA Tournament bubble. Several teams are currently considered “last four in” – Santa Clara, Miami (Ohio), Missouri, and SMU – and a three-bid A10 would undoubtedly shift the landscape, potentially excluding one or more of these teams. Oklahoma, Auburn, San Diego State, and Cal are currently the “First Four Out,” and even programs like Texas are not entirely secure.
The outcome of the A10 championship is just one piece of the puzzle as the selection committee prepares to finalize the 68-team field. Other conference tournaments – the ACC, Large 12, Big East, Big Ten, and SEC – are also reaching their conclusions, adding to the drama and uncertainty. The committee will weigh conference strength, quality wins, and overall performance when making its decisions.
Beyond the bracketology implications, the game represents a culmination of a hard-fought season for both Dayton and VCU. For Dayton, a championship would be a testament to their resilience and defensive prowess. For VCU, it would be a validation of their dominant regular-season performance and a statement of their continued success under coach Ryan Odom.
The matchup features contrasting styles. Dayton relies on a stifling defense and balanced scoring, while VCU thrives on a high-powered offense and aggressive play. The key to victory for Dayton will be containing VCU’s dynamic scoring duo of Hill Jr. And Djokovic, while for VCU, limiting Bennett and forcing turnovers will be crucial.
As the clock ticks down to Selection Sunday at 6 p.m. Eastern on CBS, the A10 championship game will undoubtedly be one of the most closely watched contests, with the outcome potentially reshaping the NCAA Tournament bracket and determining the fate of several bubble teams. The tension is high, the stakes are immense, and the stage is set for a thrilling showdown in Pittsburgh.