Israel-Iran Conflict: Attacks, Apology & Gulf State Strikes – Week 2 Update

BEIRUT – As Israeli airstrikes intensified on Iranian territory Saturday, a rare apology from Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian to neighboring Gulf states offered a fragile signal of de-escalation, even as reports emerged of further Iranian strikes targeting a US air base in the United Arab Emirates. The exchange of attacks marks a significant escalation in the conflict that began last week following an operation by the United States and Israel against Iranian interests, and raises concerns about a wider regional war.

Pezeshkian, in a televised address, expressed regret for the impact of recent Iranian strikes on civilian infrastructure in Gulf nations, urging them to refrain from joining potential US-Israeli military action against Iran. “I personally apologise to neighbouring countries that were affected by Iran’s actions,” he stated, according to reports from Channel NewsAsia. He simultaneously dismissed US President Donald Trump’s demand for “unconditional surrender” as unrealistic, characterizing it as “a dream.”

A Delicate Balance: Apology and Retaliation

The apology, while unusual, was coupled with a reaffirmation of Iran’s commitment to retaliating against any attacks originating from the region. Pezeshkian announced that Iran’s interim leadership council had approved a directive to suspend attacks on neighboring states, but only on the condition that no strikes against Iran are launched from their territory. This conditional cessation of hostilities underscores the complex calculations driving Iran’s response, balancing a desire to de-escalate with a determination to deter further aggression.

However, the gesture was quickly followed by claims from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard that its drones had struck a US air combat centre at Al Dhafra Air Base, located near Abu Dhabi. While Reuters has not independently verified this report, it highlights the continued risk of escalation despite the conciliatory rhetoric. Simultaneously, state media reported large explosions in various parts of the Iranian capital, Tehran, indicating ongoing Israeli strikes.

Gulf States Respond to Cross-Border Fire

The recent wave of attacks has sparked outrage among Gulf states, who have vocally protested the targeting of their civilian infrastructure. Despite having no direct involvement in the initial US-Israeli strikes against Iran, countries like the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq have all reported being hit by drones or missiles over the past week. The UAE defence ministry reported destroying 15 ballistic missiles and intercepting 119 drones launched from Iran, demonstrating the scale of the attacks and the defensive measures being employed. Al Jazeera reports that Emirates airline briefly suspended flights to and from Dubai on Saturday due to the situation.

Pezeshkian’s Position and Internal Divisions

Masoud Pezeshkian, who assumed the presidency in July 2024, is navigating a delicate political landscape. As a former heart surgeon, he represents a more moderate faction within the Iranian political establishment, a contrast to his predecessor, Ebrahim Raisi. His apology and call for de-escalation may be an attempt to steer the country away from a full-scale regional conflict. However, his position is not without opposition. Hardline cleric and lawmaker Hamid Rasai criticized Pezeshkian’s stance on X (formerly Twitter), deeming it “unprofessional, weak and unacceptable,” highlighting the internal divisions within Iran regarding the appropriate response to the escalating crisis.

The Shifting Regional Dynamics

Iran’s recent efforts to mend fences with its Gulf neighbors, particularly with Saudi Arabia, following years of regional rivalry, are now threatened by the current conflict. The resumption of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia in 2023, brokered by China, had offered a glimmer of hope for regional stability. However, the current escalation risks undoing those gains and further polarizing the region. The potential for miscalculation and unintended consequences is high, particularly given the involvement of multiple actors with competing interests.

Trump’s Escalatory Rhetoric and the US Position

Adding to the complexity of the situation is the increasingly bellicose rhetoric from US President Donald Trump. Trump has repeatedly demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender” and threatened further military action, including the potential for “complete destruction” of Iranian targets. His statements have raised concerns among allies and observers about the risk of a wider and more destructive conflict. Trump’s insistence on “surrender” – which he later clarified could signify the collapse of Iran’s military capabilities – is a departure from traditional diplomatic approaches and has been met with defiance from Tehran. Politico reports that Pezeshkian dismissed Trump’s demands as a futile “dream.”

The Interim Leadership Council’s Role

The formation of an interim leadership council following the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei last Saturday has further complicated the decision-making process within Iran. This council, comprised of Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i, Alireza Arafi, and Pezeshkian himself, is tasked with guiding the country through this period of transition. The council’s approval of the directive to suspend attacks on neighboring states suggests a degree of consensus on the need for de-escalation, but the internal divisions highlighted by Rasai’s criticism indicate that this consensus may be fragile.

What Remains Unclear and What is Confirmed

While Pezeshkian’s apology and the interim leadership council’s directive represent a potential shift in Iran’s strategy, several key questions remain unanswered. It is unclear whether this represents a genuine commitment to de-escalation or a tactical pause intended to regroup and prepare for further action. The extent to which Pezeshkian’s authority is challenged by hardliners within the Iranian establishment also remains uncertain. The veracity of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s claim regarding the attack on Al Dhafra Air Base has yet to be independently confirmed.

What is confirmed is the intensification of military exchanges between Israel and Iran, the targeting of Gulf states by Iranian drones and missiles, and the increasingly escalatory rhetoric from both the US and Iran. The apology offered by President Pezeshkian, while significant, is overshadowed by the ongoing violence and the looming threat of a wider regional conflict.

Looking Ahead: Procedural Next Steps

The immediate next steps will likely involve continued diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the situation. The United Nations Security Council could convene an emergency session to discuss the crisis and potentially issue a resolution calling for a ceasefire. However, the effectiveness of such a resolution will depend on the willingness of all parties to comply. Regional actors, such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar, may also play a mediating role, leveraging their relationships with both Iran and the US to facilitate dialogue. The coming days will be critical in determining whether the current escalation can be contained or whether the region is on the brink of a wider and more devastating war.